Sunday, March 16, 2008

SGR options spread

I bought this on the 11th because of the bullish divergence on the 10th (first set of lines). The MACD histogram lows are getting shallower and the price lows are getting lower which shows the bears getting weaker and the downtrend is ready to reverse. There was a bearish divergence on the 12th which unfortunately I missed, but it was definitely a good signal to sell.


Looking at the history of the stock it trades with in a range and it looks like it's a good candidate for day trading. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I have a job so this is not an option for me, but I still want to take advantage of this pattern.

So what I will do is buy an Iron Condor options spread which will get me a nice profit with not so much risk. This is a combination of a bull call credit and a bull put credit spread so the commissions will be a bit high, but it's good to control the risk in case the stock goes against me in either direction. I will not get into the description of the spread since I'm sure everyone has the books but here is exactly what I'm set to do:

Buy put SGRPJ@1.30 50.0 strike
Sell put SGRPK@2.25 55.0 strike
Sell call SGRDM@2.00 65.0 strike
Buy call SGRDN@1.10 70.0 strike

Some calculations:
bull call credit=2.25-1.30=0.95
bull put credit=2.00-1.10=0.90
total credit=1.85(max i can make per spread)

I will make money if the stock stays between 53.15 and 66.85. To calculate this I use the formula:

Lower Break Even= Sold Put Strike - Total Net Credit = 55.0-1.85
Upper Break Even= Sold Call Strike + Total Net Credit =65+1.85


If the short option is near the money I will close the short position and hold on to the long since the stock has a slight uptrend lately. There is more stuff to calculate here, but I'll end with this cause I'm getting carpal tunnel.

Alex

3 comments:

Gary said...

Nice post Alex, what settings are you using on the MACD?

AlexC said...

Slow 26
Fast 12
Signal 9

AlexC said...

By the way the commission on the four legs of this combo was only $5.60. I love interactive brokers. If anyone wants to know how to easily create these combos through the software I can help.