My [awesome] accounting professor at Stern, Dan Gode, sent his classes the following link, which offers the best explanation of the subprime mess that I've heard thus far:
http://thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242
The full webcast is about an hour long, but if you're as curious as I am about why Fannie, Freddie, Bear, Lehman, and AIG failed and a pack of others are on the brink of extinction, you will want to listen to the story in its entirety. Think: Boiler Room meets Outbreak.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Keep your eye on Crude…
Finally traders are talking about the supply/demand fundamentals that are the backbone of this Bull Run in the energy complex. Players like Goldman Sacks, T. Boone Pickens, and UBS have seen the light and are predicting anywhere from $150-$200 a barrel oil. However, we still have the naysayers talking about an oil bubble driven by the speculators.
The energy complex has been driven by the exponentially growing global demand and tightening supplies. No such bubble.
Let’s talk numbers...
World oil production is estimated to be 84 million barrels a day (excluding disruptions), while world oil consumption is 87 million barrels a day, leading to a world deficit in oil and oil products putting upward pressures on prices.
This supply/demand conundrum married with the increasingly dangerous geopolitical risk of the market, the weakening dollar, and the technical trade point to a precipitous rise in prices.
Moreover, if you look at long-dated oil futures contracts there is a contango in effect. Meaning that there is more of a premium for the longer-dated contracts (i.e. the further you go out in time the more expensive). The super-long-dated contacts, such as the Dec2016 is trading well over $140 a barrel. Factors mirroring the bullish sentiment in the market.
Yesterday, the energy complex rose on the news of drawdowns in crude oil and RBOB inventories. According to the DOE, crude oil inventories fell by 5.4 million barrels while RBOB inventories fell by 800 thousand barrels.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $4.19 to settle at $133.17 a barrel on the Nymex. Prices continued the move in after-hours trading crossing $135 a barrel for the first time.
All other energy futures also traded higher. June gasoline futures rose 9.21 cents to settle at $3.3965 a gallon after rising to a trading record of $3.4081, and June heating oil futures rose 13.34 cents to settle at $3.9084 a gallon after setting a new trading record of $3.9187.
It’s not too late to make money in the energy complex.
Fundamentally and Technically crude oil is strong buy. All short-term and long-term technical indicators point to higher prices. If Crude trades through the first resistance level of $134.86 a barrel, than it will trade trough the second resistance level of $135.09 a barrel (intraday high). Furthermore, heating oil, RBOB, and Nat Gas all offer profitable trading scenarios.
My opinion hasn’t changed; traders should only be long this market!
The energy complex has been driven by the exponentially growing global demand and tightening supplies. No such bubble.
Let’s talk numbers...
World oil production is estimated to be 84 million barrels a day (excluding disruptions), while world oil consumption is 87 million barrels a day, leading to a world deficit in oil and oil products putting upward pressures on prices.
This supply/demand conundrum married with the increasingly dangerous geopolitical risk of the market, the weakening dollar, and the technical trade point to a precipitous rise in prices.
Moreover, if you look at long-dated oil futures contracts there is a contango in effect. Meaning that there is more of a premium for the longer-dated contracts (i.e. the further you go out in time the more expensive). The super-long-dated contacts, such as the Dec2016 is trading well over $140 a barrel. Factors mirroring the bullish sentiment in the market.
Yesterday, the energy complex rose on the news of drawdowns in crude oil and RBOB inventories. According to the DOE, crude oil inventories fell by 5.4 million barrels while RBOB inventories fell by 800 thousand barrels.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $4.19 to settle at $133.17 a barrel on the Nymex. Prices continued the move in after-hours trading crossing $135 a barrel for the first time.
All other energy futures also traded higher. June gasoline futures rose 9.21 cents to settle at $3.3965 a gallon after rising to a trading record of $3.4081, and June heating oil futures rose 13.34 cents to settle at $3.9084 a gallon after setting a new trading record of $3.9187.
It’s not too late to make money in the energy complex.
Fundamentally and Technically crude oil is strong buy. All short-term and long-term technical indicators point to higher prices. If Crude trades through the first resistance level of $134.86 a barrel, than it will trade trough the second resistance level of $135.09 a barrel (intraday high). Furthermore, heating oil, RBOB, and Nat Gas all offer profitable trading scenarios.
My opinion hasn’t changed; traders should only be long this market!
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Keep your eye on Crude oil…
In NYMEX trading on Monday, light sweet crude once again rose to record levels, touching $120.36 before settling at $119.97 a barrel. Confirming that the bulls are firmly in control of the market.
Crude oil sharp rise can be attributed to a microcosm of factors. First, the shorts were squeezed and forced to cover positions. Second, there were upward price pressures driven by mounting supply fears throughout the world. In Nigeria, the second largest exporter of crude to the U.S., has suffered continual violent attacks on major pipeline and flow-stations. American oil interests in Iraq were threatened by Kurdish rebels. Moreover, Iran the second largest OPEC producer refuses to withdraw from its nuclear program causing global concern. Lastly, the dollar lost some ground against other currencies.
Furthermore, In the face of record prices global demand continues to grow outpacing U.S. demand deconstruction, this coupled with the supply issues lies the fundamental basis for the market.
How to trade it…
Technically crude oil is strong buy. All short-term and long-term technical indicators point to higher prices. If Crude trades through yesterdays high of $120.36, it will test the first resistance level of $120.93 a barrel (intraday high).if it trades trough that level it will test the second resistance level of $121.60 a barrel. Where there should be some profit taking. My opinion hasn’t changed; traders should only be long this market.
Note: we are in a long-term bull market, however there are corrections (last week), but they don’t last long. Take advantage on these corrections and buy the dips
Crude oil sharp rise can be attributed to a microcosm of factors. First, the shorts were squeezed and forced to cover positions. Second, there were upward price pressures driven by mounting supply fears throughout the world. In Nigeria, the second largest exporter of crude to the U.S., has suffered continual violent attacks on major pipeline and flow-stations. American oil interests in Iraq were threatened by Kurdish rebels. Moreover, Iran the second largest OPEC producer refuses to withdraw from its nuclear program causing global concern. Lastly, the dollar lost some ground against other currencies.
Furthermore, In the face of record prices global demand continues to grow outpacing U.S. demand deconstruction, this coupled with the supply issues lies the fundamental basis for the market.
How to trade it…
Technically crude oil is strong buy. All short-term and long-term technical indicators point to higher prices. If Crude trades through yesterdays high of $120.36, it will test the first resistance level of $120.93 a barrel (intraday high).if it trades trough that level it will test the second resistance level of $121.60 a barrel. Where there should be some profit taking. My opinion hasn’t changed; traders should only be long this market.
Note: we are in a long-term bull market, however there are corrections (last week), but they don’t last long. Take advantage on these corrections and buy the dips
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
April 30, 2008
Analysis of today’s events:
The fed decided to cut the benchmark rate .25% as was expected. The dollar did not show much reaction to the news, reflecting the fact that this was already priced in. The Fed did express concern about rising food prices and inflation overall which leads one to believe that rate cuts may stop in order to strengthen the dollar.
How this affects crude oil:
The weaker dollar has been one of the primary causes for the increase in crude oil prices as well other commodities over the last 2 years or so. A stronger dollar will slow down the current bull market dramatically as dollar-priced commodities get more expensive for non-dollar currencies.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis:
Looking at the one chart we can see that crude went from about 100 to a high of 120 before the pullback last few days. On 4/29 crude met support at 115 before slightly rebounding. Today (4/30) it broke through the 115 level and went as low as 113.8 before closing at around 115. This suggests that 115 may be a local resistance level as long as this pull back is occurring. Next level to watch is 112.50 (which also happens to be a Fibonacci level) and then about108.8. It would not be surprising to see prices range between 115/118 and 109 before breaking out again on the upside. Long term fundamentals have not changed for crude oil and natural gas and the trend is still bullish long and medium term. Its also interesting to note that RSI signaled an overbought level even as prices fell today which is a sign that price may fall rather sharply and quickly through these level once the buying pressures dies down.
Awaiting the Feds decision…
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will end two days of intense meetings and decide on monetary policy. There has been an underlying sense of uncertainty in the market awaiting the Feds decision on interest rates.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate for the first time in three years by 50 basis points to 4.75% in order to stimulate the slowing economy and counter the precipitous drop in the housing market. Since then the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates another 250 basis points to 2.25 percent.
What variables will the Fed consider..?
-The Housing market- which is at multi-year lows
-Inflationary pressures i.e. Oil and food prices
-Employment numbers
-GDP numbers
-The Dollar
It has been the consensus that the Fed will cut another quarter point for pure market psychology to 2 percent. However, the main focus of the meeting will be the Feds comments on inflation and future action. If the Fed implies that they are hawkish on inflation that will strengthen the dollar and possibly break the trend in the commodities market. However, if the Fed stresses that they will continue on the current path to stabilize the credit and housing markets the current trends are indubitably intact.
A lot can happen in one day!
In Tuesday’s trading session, crude oil fell more then $3 to settle at $115.63 a barrel. While Gasoline futures eased $.0912 to settle at $2.939 a gallon. The energy complex was under numerous influences. First, the major North Sea oil platform in Scotland came back online, the strengthening of the dollar in the face of the Feds decision, and the IEA report on crude and gas demand. The report stated that demand for petroleum products dropped 8.5% and demand for gasoline fell 6.2% in February. Alleviating some concerns on supply/demand imbalances.
However, one should not put to much merit into one report. The landscape is changing on a daily basis with incessant volatility, where traders should move ahead with cautious optimism deciphering all pertinent data (The Fed, dollar, inventory numbers, Nigeria, Iran, market politics, etc.) and hedging their trades fittingly. It is my opinion that we are in a long-term multi-year bull market and the tides didn’t turn just yet.
Note for safe bet: earnings, earnings, earnings. In the energy complex, I like the drillers. Whether oil is at $100 or $130 a barrel it is still profitable and should report strong numbers. As for the rest of the market concentrate on companies that have good earnings and are still making money. Even with the recent run-up, there are still value plays left.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate for the first time in three years by 50 basis points to 4.75% in order to stimulate the slowing economy and counter the precipitous drop in the housing market. Since then the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates another 250 basis points to 2.25 percent.
What variables will the Fed consider..?
-The Housing market- which is at multi-year lows
-Inflationary pressures i.e. Oil and food prices
-Employment numbers
-GDP numbers
-The Dollar
It has been the consensus that the Fed will cut another quarter point for pure market psychology to 2 percent. However, the main focus of the meeting will be the Feds comments on inflation and future action. If the Fed implies that they are hawkish on inflation that will strengthen the dollar and possibly break the trend in the commodities market. However, if the Fed stresses that they will continue on the current path to stabilize the credit and housing markets the current trends are indubitably intact.
A lot can happen in one day!
In Tuesday’s trading session, crude oil fell more then $3 to settle at $115.63 a barrel. While Gasoline futures eased $.0912 to settle at $2.939 a gallon. The energy complex was under numerous influences. First, the major North Sea oil platform in Scotland came back online, the strengthening of the dollar in the face of the Feds decision, and the IEA report on crude and gas demand. The report stated that demand for petroleum products dropped 8.5% and demand for gasoline fell 6.2% in February. Alleviating some concerns on supply/demand imbalances.
However, one should not put to much merit into one report. The landscape is changing on a daily basis with incessant volatility, where traders should move ahead with cautious optimism deciphering all pertinent data (The Fed, dollar, inventory numbers, Nigeria, Iran, market politics, etc.) and hedging their trades fittingly. It is my opinion that we are in a long-term multi-year bull market and the tides didn’t turn just yet.
Note for safe bet: earnings, earnings, earnings. In the energy complex, I like the drillers. Whether oil is at $100 or $130 a barrel it is still profitable and should report strong numbers. As for the rest of the market concentrate on companies that have good earnings and are still making money. Even with the recent run-up, there are still value plays left.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Crude and the energy complex…
The combination of recent refinery problems, the weakening dollar, speculative buying, and rising global demand will cause a precipitous spike in crude oil and its products.
In Scotland, we got news that workers walked of the job at a major North Sea oil pipeline that produces over 700,000 barrels of oil a day. It is estimated to cost over $100 a-day in lost production. Furthermore, two of the largest oil companies cut production by an unspecified amount at their Nigeria Niger Delta refinery due to militant attacks. Nigeria, the worlds 8th largest supplier of oil has suffered four pipeline bombings last weak further tightening world production. According to recent studies, world crude oil supplies are already down 6% from a year ago. The politics of the Middle East still remain tense, as seen last week’s incident with Iran. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz that Iran has the ability to block. This married with the weakening dollar and the speculative inflation hedge further puts upward price pressures on crude oil and its products.
$125, $130?? In the short term i see higher prices, however, in the future, due to the politics of the market i do see a pullback in prices.
In Scotland, we got news that workers walked of the job at a major North Sea oil pipeline that produces over 700,000 barrels of oil a day. It is estimated to cost over $100 a-day in lost production. Furthermore, two of the largest oil companies cut production by an unspecified amount at their Nigeria Niger Delta refinery due to militant attacks. Nigeria, the worlds 8th largest supplier of oil has suffered four pipeline bombings last weak further tightening world production. According to recent studies, world crude oil supplies are already down 6% from a year ago. The politics of the Middle East still remain tense, as seen last week’s incident with Iran. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz that Iran has the ability to block. This married with the weakening dollar and the speculative inflation hedge further puts upward price pressures on crude oil and its products.
$125, $130?? In the short term i see higher prices, however, in the future, due to the politics of the market i do see a pullback in prices.
Keep your eye on RBOB…
Gas prices extended further into record territory surpassing $3.55 a gallon on more news of tightening supplies. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell 3.2 million barrels last week raising concerns of future fuel supply levels as we approach the peak summer driving season.
Could we see $4 a gallon at the pumps?
RBOB futures have followed the rest of the energy complex higher in recent sessions. Gasoline prices that we pay at the pump are influenced by a number of factors; the futures market, crude oil prices, the dollar, and refinery utilization. The crude-gas crack spread has been widening causing refiners to cut production due to low profit margins. Refiners have been unable to raise gas prices in conjunction with the soaring cost of crude. Moreover, there is a shortage of a necessary additive for making summer grade gas called Alkylate-Further putting upward pressure on the price of gasoline.
On a percentage basis, there is tremendous upside potential in RBOB futures.
Higher crude prices+falling dollar+tightening supplies+speculation= higher Gasoline cost
Could we see $4 a gallon at the pumps?
RBOB futures have followed the rest of the energy complex higher in recent sessions. Gasoline prices that we pay at the pump are influenced by a number of factors; the futures market, crude oil prices, the dollar, and refinery utilization. The crude-gas crack spread has been widening causing refiners to cut production due to low profit margins. Refiners have been unable to raise gas prices in conjunction with the soaring cost of crude. Moreover, there is a shortage of a necessary additive for making summer grade gas called Alkylate-Further putting upward pressure on the price of gasoline.
On a percentage basis, there is tremendous upside potential in RBOB futures.
Higher crude prices+falling dollar+tightening supplies+speculation= higher Gasoline cost
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Keep your eye on crude…
Crude oil retreated early in the trading season Wednesday on anticipation of the release of DOE inventory numbers. According to recent surveys, forecasts are expected to show a build in crude supplies of 1.2-2 million barrels, while gasoline stocks are set to decline 2.5 million barrels.
This a day after both reached and closed at record levels. Crude oil futures closed at $119.17, after an intraday high of $119.90 a barrel. The current contract for June delivery closed at $118.07 a barrel. Looking out in the future, we see all long-dated oil contracts over $100 a barrel, illustrating the troublesome supply/demand fundamentals.
How to trade this market..?
Look for another surprise draw in the inventory data, leading to higher prices.
The long-term fundamentals are still in play. Global demand continues to rise in the face of the precipitous increase in prices with no sign of future demand deconstruction. On the supply side, currently we are suffering the constant disruptions from; Nigeria, Iraq, Mexico, Russia, etc, and future supply is in jeopardy due to LACK of REinvestment in oil and gas industries. We have seen a continual decrease in oil production from countries like Mexico, Venezuela, and even Russia due to deterioration in drilling platforms from lack of maintenance.
Moreover, we have seen an influx of investment from pension funds and commodity index funds, which tend to invest for the long-term.
All factors adding to the outlook on higher oil prices.
This a day after both reached and closed at record levels. Crude oil futures closed at $119.17, after an intraday high of $119.90 a barrel. The current contract for June delivery closed at $118.07 a barrel. Looking out in the future, we see all long-dated oil contracts over $100 a barrel, illustrating the troublesome supply/demand fundamentals.
How to trade this market..?
Look for another surprise draw in the inventory data, leading to higher prices.
The long-term fundamentals are still in play. Global demand continues to rise in the face of the precipitous increase in prices with no sign of future demand deconstruction. On the supply side, currently we are suffering the constant disruptions from; Nigeria, Iraq, Mexico, Russia, etc, and future supply is in jeopardy due to LACK of REinvestment in oil and gas industries. We have seen a continual decrease in oil production from countries like Mexico, Venezuela, and even Russia due to deterioration in drilling platforms from lack of maintenance.
Moreover, we have seen an influx of investment from pension funds and commodity index funds, which tend to invest for the long-term.
All factors adding to the outlook on higher oil prices.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Crude Oil and the energy complex…
Today, crude oil futures settled at an all time high of $117.48 after touching an intraday high of $117.76 a barrel. RBOB closed slightly lower at $2.98 after reaching a record of $3.00 a gallon. Moreover, natural gas closed at the highest levels since December 05’, settling at $10.72 btu. Once again, heating oil led the energy complex higher, closing at $3.31 a gallon.
The entire energy complex moved on the news of supply disruptions in Nigeria and the continuing depreciation of the US dollar. Still supported strongly by fundamentals, the energy complex has been responding to the tightening supply and rising global demand that support higher prices across the board.
How to trade this market..?
It’s not too late to make money in the energy market, there is tremendous upside left. Investors can gain exposure a number of ways; buying the physical commodity, futures, or stocks that have exposure to the energy market. For the later, investors should concentrate on stocks exposed to oil and natural gas, especially the oil/gas exploration, drillers, riggers and transport, such as; RIG, OXY, GW, and CHK to name a few.
Moreover, concentrating on crude oil, all the technical indicators point to higher prices and suggest that’s it a strong buy. In tomorrows trading session, if crude oil trades thru the 1st resistance level of $118.32 it will trade up to the 2nd resistance level of $119.17 a barrel before profit taking.
The entire energy complex moved on the news of supply disruptions in Nigeria and the continuing depreciation of the US dollar. Still supported strongly by fundamentals, the energy complex has been responding to the tightening supply and rising global demand that support higher prices across the board.
How to trade this market..?
It’s not too late to make money in the energy market, there is tremendous upside left. Investors can gain exposure a number of ways; buying the physical commodity, futures, or stocks that have exposure to the energy market. For the later, investors should concentrate on stocks exposed to oil and natural gas, especially the oil/gas exploration, drillers, riggers and transport, such as; RIG, OXY, GW, and CHK to name a few.
Moreover, concentrating on crude oil, all the technical indicators point to higher prices and suggest that’s it a strong buy. In tomorrows trading session, if crude oil trades thru the 1st resistance level of $118.32 it will trade up to the 2nd resistance level of $119.17 a barrel before profit taking.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Keep your eye on crude…
In trading today, we see crude oil weaker caused by the strength of the dollar bouncing off its lows of past sessions and from shear profit taking in crude.
Crude oil, in yesterdays trading reached levels never before seen. Continuing the recent driving force of prices, US light Sweet Crude peaked at $115.54 a barrel. While in London, Brent Crude traded at another record of $113.29 a barrel.
The bullish inventory report acted as a catalyst to the markets. The Department of Energy’s report showed a surprise drop in US crude inventories and a larger-than-expected drawdown in gasoline inventories. Which sparked rising fears that there wouldn’t be enough supply to meet the demand for fuel during the summer driving season.
How to trade this market..?
Buy the dips!! Its only going higher..!
Crude oil, in yesterdays trading reached levels never before seen. Continuing the recent driving force of prices, US light Sweet Crude peaked at $115.54 a barrel. While in London, Brent Crude traded at another record of $113.29 a barrel.
The bullish inventory report acted as a catalyst to the markets. The Department of Energy’s report showed a surprise drop in US crude inventories and a larger-than-expected drawdown in gasoline inventories. Which sparked rising fears that there wouldn’t be enough supply to meet the demand for fuel during the summer driving season.
How to trade this market..?
Buy the dips!! Its only going higher..!
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Keep your eye on Crude….
The recent run-up in crude oil to new highs has sparked a new wave of interest and buying in the energy complex.
Crude oil in pre-market trading crossed into uncharted levels to a new record high of $113.66 a barrel.
Firstly, due to a substantially weaker dollar-which has held near record lows this week against the Euro. A weak dollar causes dollar-denominated commodities to become more attractive to foreign investors.
Furthermore, it comes down to supply/demand fundamentals. With rising demand, any supply disruptions causes tremendous ripples in the energy complex. With constant infighting in Nigeria, the war in Iraq and the recent shutdown of three key oil exporting ports in Mexico puts upward price pressures on the energy complex and directly supports higher crude oil prices.
Moreover, technically crude oil is strong buy. All short-term and long-term technical indicators point to higher prices. If Crude trades through the intraday record of $113.66, it will test the first resistance level of $113.99 a barrel. If it closes higher than the 1st resistance level it should trade to $114.76 a barrel. My opinion hasn’t changed, traders should only be long this market.
Crude oil in pre-market trading crossed into uncharted levels to a new record high of $113.66 a barrel.
Firstly, due to a substantially weaker dollar-which has held near record lows this week against the Euro. A weak dollar causes dollar-denominated commodities to become more attractive to foreign investors.
Furthermore, it comes down to supply/demand fundamentals. With rising demand, any supply disruptions causes tremendous ripples in the energy complex. With constant infighting in Nigeria, the war in Iraq and the recent shutdown of three key oil exporting ports in Mexico puts upward price pressures on the energy complex and directly supports higher crude oil prices.
Moreover, technically crude oil is strong buy. All short-term and long-term technical indicators point to higher prices. If Crude trades through the intraday record of $113.66, it will test the first resistance level of $113.99 a barrel. If it closes higher than the 1st resistance level it should trade to $114.76 a barrel. My opinion hasn’t changed, traders should only be long this market.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Crude and the energy complex…
In Wednesday’s trading session, Crude Oil and the rest of the energy complex closed the day much higher on bullish inventory data, the further weakening of the dollar, and news of conflict in Iraq. According to the department of energy, we had a bigger than expected drop in gasoline and heating oil inventories with crude inventories unchanged.
Upon release, traders rushed in the market pushing prices higher across the board. How the energy complex fared on the day; Crude Oil rose $4.68 to settle at $105.90 a barrel and Nat Gas dropped a penny to close at $9.55 per 1000 cubic feet. In other NYMEX trading, heating oil futures rose by close to 3 cents to $3.07 a gallon (3.8 liters) while gasoline prices corrected by just over a penny to $2.7313 a gallon.
Intraday, Crude Oil closed in on $108 a barrel on news of a pipeline explosion in Basra, Iraq. The Basra is home to Iraq’s three largest oil pipelines and is considered to be a key export hub with 80% of Iraqi oil production passing through it.
Early in Thursday’s session, we see a slight pull back in prices do to a stronger dollar caused by a better-than-expected PCE number.
So, how do you trade this market...?
Crude Oil, on a technical basis retested the support level of 99.98 in Tuesday’s session and has since bounced of and moved higher, as per my article “keep your eye on crude”. If crude breaches the 1st resistance level of $107.08, it will then trade up to the 2nd resistance level of 108.73. If it closes higher than the 2ND resistance it could trade up to $110. If so, the next key technical level is the all time high of $111.80 a barrel. Traders should take advantage and buy the dips adding to their net long position. And with two straight weeks of RBOB Draw downs, in a time when there should be builds to prepare for driving season, I am watching that market to see what materializes.
Upon release, traders rushed in the market pushing prices higher across the board. How the energy complex fared on the day; Crude Oil rose $4.68 to settle at $105.90 a barrel and Nat Gas dropped a penny to close at $9.55 per 1000 cubic feet. In other NYMEX trading, heating oil futures rose by close to 3 cents to $3.07 a gallon (3.8 liters) while gasoline prices corrected by just over a penny to $2.7313 a gallon.
Intraday, Crude Oil closed in on $108 a barrel on news of a pipeline explosion in Basra, Iraq. The Basra is home to Iraq’s three largest oil pipelines and is considered to be a key export hub with 80% of Iraqi oil production passing through it.
Early in Thursday’s session, we see a slight pull back in prices do to a stronger dollar caused by a better-than-expected PCE number.
So, how do you trade this market...?
Crude Oil, on a technical basis retested the support level of 99.98 in Tuesday’s session and has since bounced of and moved higher, as per my article “keep your eye on crude”. If crude breaches the 1st resistance level of $107.08, it will then trade up to the 2nd resistance level of 108.73. If it closes higher than the 2ND resistance it could trade up to $110. If so, the next key technical level is the all time high of $111.80 a barrel. Traders should take advantage and buy the dips adding to their net long position. And with two straight weeks of RBOB Draw downs, in a time when there should be builds to prepare for driving season, I am watching that market to see what materializes.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Crude Oil Elliot
Crude Oil dropped to a low of about 99 and has since rebounded and traded within this level and the first Fibo level at about 102. Both level have been tested at least twice with a failure to breach. This suggests that Crude Oil will consolidate in this range until breaking out to, most likely, the upside.
Another interesting thing to consider is that there is 5 stage downtrend Eliot Wave that has just been completed. I have tried to mark it on the chart but my photo shop skills are not that great. The end of the wave suggest that the downtrend may be over and ready for a reversal. A break above would 102 would suggest the first stage of a 3 step retracement or the beginning of a new 5 stage up wave.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Natural Gas in 08`…
The NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas contract have risen 25% on the year on news of tightening supply coupled with rising demand and cold snap storm worries. According to inventory reports, Nat Gas supplies are down 14% year-over-year and up only 2% from the five year average. Recently the Department of Energy estimated that 2008 natural gas demand in the U.S. was 63.53 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, a little less than the 63.60 (bcf) per day of estimated new supplies (including imports). Moreover, recent news of a cold front to hit the Northeast and the Midwest next week will put upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, technically speaking, Natural Gas has some upside left in the short term. In the mid-term, prices will come down due to the number of new projects and pipelines coming online, increasing supply. Now, looking long-term, I think Natural Gas is a fuel of the future and has tremendous upside potential.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Keep your eye on crude…
Over the weekend, Vice President Dick Cheney visited with the oil minister Saudi Arabia in an attempt to discuss ways of stabilizing the oil market. This followed the first reported weekly lost in Crude Oil in last six trading weeks. Crude moved to the downside 6.35% to $101.84 from a record high of $111.88 a barrel.
The Saudi oil minister reaffirmed that they have kept promises to raise oil production and vowed to invest $10 of billions in oil infrastructure and new wells.
In today’s pre-market trading, these comments, demand worries, and the further strengthening of the dollar have put downward pressure on crude and the rest of the energy complex.
Moreover, Crude Oil on a technical basis has some downside weakness. All short-term technicals indicate hold/sell points. The long-term tells a different story altogether, it points toward much higher prices in crude. First, we have to retest the support level of $99.98 before moving forward. In my opinion, we bounce from those levels and move higher. However, if that support level is broken, we will trade to the 38% retracement level of $94.73 a barrel before moving higher.
The Saudi oil minister reaffirmed that they have kept promises to raise oil production and vowed to invest $10 of billions in oil infrastructure and new wells.
In today’s pre-market trading, these comments, demand worries, and the further strengthening of the dollar have put downward pressure on crude and the rest of the energy complex.
Moreover, Crude Oil on a technical basis has some downside weakness. All short-term technicals indicate hold/sell points. The long-term tells a different story altogether, it points toward much higher prices in crude. First, we have to retest the support level of $99.98 before moving forward. In my opinion, we bounce from those levels and move higher. However, if that support level is broken, we will trade to the 38% retracement level of $94.73 a barrel before moving higher.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Where to put your money…
In these turbulent times, blanketed by uncertainty, investors are scratching their heads on which assets they should invest in. We hear terms like recession, slowdown, crisis, correction, bottoming out, and capitulation on a daily basis that adds to the mass confusion in the market. Volatility tells the tale; the parity of high-to-low for the week was over 700 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. With the impending Q4 GDP and consumer confidence numbers; along with durable goods orders, PCE, and new home sales, it proves to be another volatile week. Moreover, [in the short-term] I see further weakness in the major indices, the dollar, and certain commodities due to; poor economic numbers, the uncertainty of the credit crisis, the continuing deterioration of the housing market, and further Fed action.
So where should you put your money in these volatile times..?
With compressed valuations averaging 14-16x in the market and dividend yields on 40% of the S&P greater than treasury yields, there is great value in [many] individual stocks. These stocks, for whatever reason, that have been beaten up and oversold irrationally in the marketplace. Investors have to develop “screeners” containing specific variables in order to generate stocks that are undervalued and a good buy.
Stock screeners could include variable such as:
1. Favorable Price-Book Ratio
2. Low P/E Ratio (within the respective industry)
3. Lots of Cash on hand
4. Low to virtually no debt
5. High ROA
6. No exposure to sub-prime securities
7. Pays a Dividend
It should be noted that meeting all criteria is close to impossible, especially in large cap stocks. The combination of points and the range within each depends on your own personal preferences. Essentially, when using a guideline the stock/s in question should meet [as many] points as possible. It goes without saying that the more criteria met-the better.
There are great values in the market; all you have to do is find them.
Good hunting...
So where should you put your money in these volatile times..?
With compressed valuations averaging 14-16x in the market and dividend yields on 40% of the S&P greater than treasury yields, there is great value in [many] individual stocks. These stocks, for whatever reason, that have been beaten up and oversold irrationally in the marketplace. Investors have to develop “screeners” containing specific variables in order to generate stocks that are undervalued and a good buy.
Stock screeners could include variable such as:
1. Favorable Price-Book Ratio
2. Low P/E Ratio (within the respective industry)
3. Lots of Cash on hand
4. Low to virtually no debt
5. High ROA
6. No exposure to sub-prime securities
7. Pays a Dividend
It should be noted that meeting all criteria is close to impossible, especially in large cap stocks. The combination of points and the range within each depends on your own personal preferences. Essentially, when using a guideline the stock/s in question should meet [as many] points as possible. It goes without saying that the more criteria met-the better.
There are great values in the market; all you have to do is find them.
Good hunting...
Thursday, March 20, 2008
A couple of articles about recent evens.
Slump from Wall Street to Main Street
New York Times
- With Wall Street caught in a credit crisis that has captured headlines, the forces assailing the economy are now spreading beyond areas hit hardest by the boom-turned-bust in real estate like California, Florida and Nevada. Now, the downturn is seeping into new parts of the country, to communities that seemed insulated only months ago.
Crude Falls below $100 on Economic Concerns
MarketWatch
New York Times
- With Wall Street caught in a credit crisis that has captured headlines, the forces assailing the economy are now spreading beyond areas hit hardest by the boom-turned-bust in real estate like California, Florida and Nevada. Now, the downturn is seeping into new parts of the country, to communities that seemed insulated only months ago.
Crude Falls below $100 on Economic Concerns
MarketWatch
Crude's recent surge was triggered by "a wave of money from speculative interests looking for an inflation hedge as the dollar crumbled," said John Kilduff, an analyst at futures brokerage MF Global. "The inability to extend at the top has that same pool of money now heading for the exists."
"Now that $100 has been broken, the odds have risen that a much deeper price correction will occur ahead," he added in a research note.
Crude's drop came as most commodities futures fell for a second day. In past weeks, inflation worries and the falling dollar sent investors flocking to oil, gold and grains as safe-haven investments. Some of that inflation-momentum disappeared Wednesday as the dollar rose back.
Crude's drop came as most commodities futures fell for a second day. In past weeks, inflation worries and the falling dollar sent investors flocking to oil, gold and grains as safe-haven investments. Some of that inflation-momentum disappeared Wednesday as the dollar rose back.
Roller coaster week…
The trading week was filled with precipitous ups and downs. Traders could not hide from the volatility which was felt in all industries and market sectors. Art Cashin put it best, “the last two weeks have been like a roller coaster ride, with drastic ups and downs, and when its over you get off where you started and it costs you money.” The week was highlighted by the Bear Sterns deal, the action taken by the Federal Reserve, deleveraging of hedge funds, strengthening of the financial sector, and a broad selloff in commodities.
To put things into perspective lets talk numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was all over; Tuesday +420, Wednesday -300, and today +262 points to gain 3.4% on the week. Moreover, the S&P and the NASDAQ both closed the week positive up 3.21% and 2.06% respectively. The 3-month treasury closed at the lowest levels in FIFTY YEARS, 0.51 percent. The 10-year 3.337%. April Crude oil was down 6.3% on the week to close at 101.84. Heating Oil for April delivery fell by almost 4 cents to $2.9772, and closed the week down 5.38%. Natural Gas closed up 2.8 cents to $9.14, on news that underground supplies were down 85 billion cubic feet, down 14% from a year ago, according to the Department of energy. However, netted an 8.4% loss for the week. July soybeans were down their 50-cent daily limit at $12.22, the lowest close in eight weeks, blamed on heavy selling by funds. Cocoas front month contract closed the week down 24%. Gold hit an intra day high of $1033 mark before ending the week at 920, a fall of 7.5%. Due to the recent drop in corn prices, May feeder cattle closed up .40 cents at $1.0735.
Some traders believe we had reached a bottoming out point and its “off to the races” from here. They are correct to an extent. The Feds determination to fix and keep liquidity in the financial market leads me to believe it is on the mend. Moreover, if you look at individual stocks there are; strong balance sheets, good corporate earnings, and VERY attractive earnings. For example, today we saw a further strengthening in the dollar versus other currencies in-part due to new money coming into the market because of many traders’ bullish outlook. All the major averages closed higher for the week signaling a strong follow through. However, the credit crisis remains. And “we don’t know what we don’t know”, meaning who is exposed to what assets. Only time and the tape will tell…
look for "where to put your money "this weekend...
To put things into perspective lets talk numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was all over; Tuesday +420, Wednesday -300, and today +262 points to gain 3.4% on the week. Moreover, the S&P and the NASDAQ both closed the week positive up 3.21% and 2.06% respectively. The 3-month treasury closed at the lowest levels in FIFTY YEARS, 0.51 percent. The 10-year 3.337%. April Crude oil was down 6.3% on the week to close at 101.84. Heating Oil for April delivery fell by almost 4 cents to $2.9772, and closed the week down 5.38%. Natural Gas closed up 2.8 cents to $9.14, on news that underground supplies were down 85 billion cubic feet, down 14% from a year ago, according to the Department of energy. However, netted an 8.4% loss for the week. July soybeans were down their 50-cent daily limit at $12.22, the lowest close in eight weeks, blamed on heavy selling by funds. Cocoas front month contract closed the week down 24%. Gold hit an intra day high of $1033 mark before ending the week at 920, a fall of 7.5%. Due to the recent drop in corn prices, May feeder cattle closed up .40 cents at $1.0735.
Some traders believe we had reached a bottoming out point and its “off to the races” from here. They are correct to an extent. The Feds determination to fix and keep liquidity in the financial market leads me to believe it is on the mend. Moreover, if you look at individual stocks there are; strong balance sheets, good corporate earnings, and VERY attractive earnings. For example, today we saw a further strengthening in the dollar versus other currencies in-part due to new money coming into the market because of many traders’ bullish outlook. All the major averages closed higher for the week signaling a strong follow through. However, the credit crisis remains. And “we don’t know what we don’t know”, meaning who is exposed to what assets. Only time and the tape will tell…
look for "where to put your money "this weekend...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Crude Oil Fibonnacci
As per my comment below, here is the applicable chart. Please note how the price rebounded as soon as it touched the 61.8% level on Monday.
Don’t jump out of the window yet… Volatility creates Value
There was a sense of decoupling in the stock market today. The broad market acted the way it did for two specific reasons; the deleveraging of hedge funds and a massive flight to quality. First, hedge funds were forced to sell assets with intrinsic value (profitable ones) to appease their prime brokers and possibly to raise money to cover short positions. The prime brokerage firms that handle hedge fund trades wanted less risk in the market place, for example making them lower their leverage from 10-1 to 5-1, decreasing exposure to risky assets. Second, the decoupling and uncertainty in the broadest sense prompted trader to find less risky securities. This flight to safety led to a massive 27bp drop in the 3month T-Bill, which closed at the lowest in FIFTY YEARS at .61 percent. Moreover, the 10-year closed 9bp lower. All of this caused the selloff in commodities (gold, crude, cotton, etc.) and the stock market. Which leads me to my title, “don’t jump out of the window yet”, the ground rules still apply and most technical indicators give support to prices, this move in the market has a strong chance to gain ground tomorrow. I will leave you with this; when investing, particularly in commodities, you do so with a fundamental and technical basis, than you need the patience and resolve to ride out market fluctuations. Especially in volatile markets.
What the Fed did…
Yesterday, the Fed came out and cut the Fed funds and discount window interest rates 75bps. With these cuts the Fed also gave a strong proactive statement indicating that there are more tools in the pipeline to ensure a strong financial system. Essentially, these cuts made money cheaper, but still not available. This is due to uncertainty among lenders to lend out money to borrowers. However, the effects of these rate cuts will be wide spread in bringing down the ARM re-fi. Essentially, keeping more people in their homes and less inventory in the market. The market reacted appropriately in yesterdays trading session with 420pt gain on the Dow and 51pts on the S&P. We will see if there is follow thru in today’s market. However, don’t be surprised if we are down for the day, with yesterdays substantial moves a flat-down day is a winner. I’ll be watching the tape…
Interesting Article out of the UK
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3578231.ece
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Monday March 17, 2008
Monday March 17, 2008
Crude oil started dipping overnight and continued the drop from 111 to 106.9 where it briefly consolidated for about 15-20 min before continuing the plunge to 105. Price then rose to 108.8 during midday (with a downward sloping consolidation between 107.5 and 106.2 over about 35 minutes). After achieving a local peak at 108.8 it began a decline to 103.2 (with another downward sloping consolidation between 106.5 and 105.5 over about 45minutes). A late day rally (1 hour before market close) ended with price at 106.2. Prices were up slightly in after hours trading (perhaps driven by speculation ahead of fed’s meeting today and possible decision to lower rates by 100 basis points as well as weaker dollar) but have since declined slightly to 107.3 as of 1030am.
Events were driven early on Monday by poor economic news from the US including a larger than expected decline in the empire manufacturing index- The NY "Empire" Index is one of the timeliest indicators and suggests that the manufacturing sectors is sliding into poor territory, a larger than expected decline in Industrial Production and the Capacity Utilization rate.
Also, the Bear Stearns collapse raised tensions that an economic slowdown (financials were all down) will curb
Where to put your money…
The crude run is far from over. The crude supply/demand fundamentals point to sustained high prices. Crude oil supply is down 4% from a year ago, and we are experiencing a relentless increase in the demand for crude oil and its related products. Furthermore, in this day and age the growing geo-political risk adds to the upward price pressures i.e. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela. Then you have the speculative interest in crude oil. It has almost become a safe haven, an inflationary hedge. And with the impending interest rate cuts, which puts downward pressure on the $, look for a run-up in crude oil and related products. Moreover, look for a run-up in traditional inflationary hedges such as Gold. In times of uncertainty people tend to invest in tangible assets such as these.
Awaiting the Feds decision…
With tools that haven’t been used since the Second World War, the Federal Reserve has been fervently trying to stabilize the financial markets. It seems that we had gotten some during yesterday’s session. However, it is not over. There is a sense of uncertainty awaiting the Feds upcoming interest rate decision. Will it be 50bp, 75bp, or 100bp. Everyone should not worry the market will get what it wants and desperately needs. In my opinion there is a 100% chance they will lower the Fed Funds by 75bp with a very strong possibility of a full percentage point cut. Moreover, we can see an additional 50bp discount window cut.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Today's Video Recap of Forex Market
http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resources/video-news-and-analysis/daily-recap/03-17-08/
Steep volatility from Sunday night in the GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD calmed down in Monday trading with the Dollar paring some of its losses. The Pound is getting hit up as the UK faces many similar risks to higher credit costs that has been hurting the US economy. The Yen has been the biggest beneficiary to the market turmoil as "carry trade" - borrowing in yen and purchasing assets in high yielder like Aussie, Pound, etc - has been unraveling.
Tomorrow's Fed announcement at 2:15 PM will have a big impact on the markets. Rates were expected to be cut by 75 basis points, but now markets may be expecting a full 100 basis point reduction. Inflation data from the UK (5:30 am est) and canada (7 am) have the chance to affect those currencies. The US posts PPI data, along with housing (building permits and housing starts), which will probably not have a dramatic effect on currencies as investors will be waiting for Fed statement.
Steep volatility from Sunday night in the GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD calmed down in Monday trading with the Dollar paring some of its losses. The Pound is getting hit up as the UK faces many similar risks to higher credit costs that has been hurting the US economy. The Yen has been the biggest beneficiary to the market turmoil as "carry trade" - borrowing in yen and purchasing assets in high yielder like Aussie, Pound, etc - has been unraveling.
Tomorrow's Fed announcement at 2:15 PM will have a big impact on the markets. Rates were expected to be cut by 75 basis points, but now markets may be expecting a full 100 basis point reduction. Inflation data from the UK (5:30 am est) and canada (7 am) have the chance to affect those currencies. The US posts PPI data, along with housing (building permits and housing starts), which will probably not have a dramatic effect on currencies as investors will be waiting for Fed statement.
Outlook for March 17, 2008
As mentioned in an earlier, the S and P 500 is close to the resistance at about 1275 (having closed at 1289 last week). The BSC drop should be enough to blow through the resistance and may possibly lead to a decent drop. If the market starts falling, Short SPX could be profitable for about 20-30 points.
Another thing to consider is that the dollar has been killed against the EUR and JPY has been rising during overnight trading and will put further bullish pressure on the price of crude oil. Will poor economic news out of the US signal a slowdown in demand and put bearish pressure on prices is to be seen.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Bear turns Bunny
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200803162154DOWJONESDJONLINE000420_FORTUNE5.htm
In one of the most interesting and drastic unravellings in recent business history, Bear Stearns's board of directors has negotiated a full-on take-over by JP Morgan for a whopping $2/share (previous day close @$30/share and @$57/share the day before that), signaling in no uncertain terms that last week's billions in Bear's market value are gone for good.
In addition to the direct losses experienced by all carrying exposure to Bear, we now stand to witness a potential reevaluation of adjacent CDO-carrying financials as their multiples will necessarily be reconsidered with mounting concern for "run on the bank" scenarios and long-term solvency.
In the short term, Goldman has a narrow advantage in the financial playing field while Citi may be the next bulge-bracket under the gun.
--
Artem
In one of the most interesting and drastic unravellings in recent business history, Bear Stearns's board of directors has negotiated a full-on take-over by JP Morgan for a whopping $2/share (previous day close @$30/share and @$57/share the day before that), signaling in no uncertain terms that last week's billions in Bear's market value are gone for good.
In addition to the direct losses experienced by all carrying exposure to Bear, we now stand to witness a potential reevaluation of adjacent CDO-carrying financials as their multiples will necessarily be reconsidered with mounting concern for "run on the bank" scenarios and long-term solvency.
In the short term, Goldman has a narrow advantage in the financial playing field while Citi may be the next bulge-bracket under the gun.
--
Artem
SGR options spread
I bought this on the 11th because of the bullish divergence on the 10th (first set of lines). The MACD histogram lows are getting shallower and the price lows are getting lower which shows the bears getting weaker and the downtrend is ready to reverse. There was a bearish divergence on the 12th which unfortunately I missed, but it was definitely a good signal to sell. Looking at the history of the stock it trades with in a range and it looks like it's a good candidate for day trading. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I have a job so this is not an option for me, but I still want to take advantage of this pattern.
So what I will do is buy an Iron Condor options spread which will get me a nice profit with not so much risk. This is a combination of a bull call credit and a bull put credit spread so the commissions will be a bit high, but it's good to control the risk in case the stock goes against me in either direction. I will not get into the description of the spread since I'm sure everyone has the books but here is exactly what I'm set to do:
Buy put SGRPJ@1.30 50.0 strike
Sell put SGRPK@2.25 55.0 strike
Sell call SGRDM@2.00 65.0 strike
Buy call SGRDN@1.10 70.0 strike
Some calculations:
bull call credit=2.25-1.30=0.95
bull put credit=2.00-1.10=0.90
total credit=1.85(max i can make per spread)
I will make money if the stock stays between 53.15 and 66.85. To calculate this I use the formula:
| Lower Break Even= | Sold Put Strike - Total Net Credit = 55.0-1.85 |
| Upper Break Even= | Sold Call Strike + Total Net Credit =65+1.85 |
If the short option is near the money I will close the short position and hold on to the long since the stock has a slight uptrend lately. There is more stuff to calculate here, but I'll end with this cause I'm getting carpal tunnel.
Alex
Saturday, March 15, 2008
March 13, 2008
Trader’s Log
March 13, 2008
1. S and P 500
- Opened a little lower on poor retail sales news and I was short the market at about 1292. Market dipped to 1282.50 but I didn’t buy back looking for a further drop and then got clipped because I didn’t see the prior day’s support which created a move up. There was a nice rally to about 1320 part of which I caught. The market hit a top at about 1321 for the first time at around 2pm, went back and forth 3 cycles before breaking and closing at 1314.
Tech Notes: Used an EMA (exponential Moving average) Crossover to generate trading signals with some success (caught the breakout and subsequent rally at 11am (1287). Would have whipsawed me at 12:45 (1300) but caught the entire uptrend at 1pm (1300)
2. Crude Oil Future (Qmj8)
- Typical crazy ass oil day. Market opened at around 110 and there was an early rally to 110.750 (Weaker $$$?) A decline to 109.4 followed. The next rally got to 111.00 and then fell to about 109.4 again. I bought at this point (109.8) trying to get the next uptrend and was rewarded with a limit of 111.350. Then fell to 108.750 (at which point I was long at a point higher but didn’t close, (mistake?) the next rally took it to 110.1 and I sold once again to lock in another small profit.
Tech Notes: Nothing of value. Tried EMA crossovers but too many whipsaws. Perhaps an oscillator of some sort to assist in when to get it and out? Stoch had some decent signals(14, 14, 9) on 2 day chart with 5 min candles…
March 13, 2008
1. S and P 500
- Opened a little lower on poor retail sales news and I was short the market at about 1292. Market dipped to 1282.50 but I didn’t buy back looking for a further drop and then got clipped because I didn’t see the prior day’s support which created a move up. There was a nice rally to about 1320 part of which I caught. The market hit a top at about 1321 for the first time at around 2pm, went back and forth 3 cycles before breaking and closing at 1314.
Tech Notes: Used an EMA (exponential Moving average) Crossover to generate trading signals with some success (caught the breakout and subsequent rally at 11am (1287). Would have whipsawed me at 12:45 (1300) but caught the entire uptrend at 1pm (1300)
2. Crude Oil Future (Qmj8)
- Typical crazy ass oil day. Market opened at around 110 and there was an early rally to 110.750 (Weaker $$$?) A decline to 109.4 followed. The next rally got to 111.00 and then fell to about 109.4 again. I bought at this point (109.8) trying to get the next uptrend and was rewarded with a limit of 111.350. Then fell to 108.750 (at which point I was long at a point higher but didn’t close, (mistake?) the next rally took it to 110.1 and I sold once again to lock in another small profit.
Tech Notes: Nothing of value. Tried EMA crossovers but too many whipsaws. Perhaps an oscillator of some sort to assist in when to get it and out? Stoch had some decent signals(14, 14, 9) on 2 day chart with 5 min candles…
Friday, March 14, 2008
Introduction
Welcome to the daily economic analysis blog sponsored by G Funds, LLC. All invited authors are encouraged to post their thoughts, ideas, and any trading suggestions. The goal is to facilitate the free flow of information related to anything involving trading and the financial markets. Hopefully our cumulative knowledge will improve individual trading results. The ultimate goal of this blog is to make us all more money. While there are no formal limitations on postings (meaning you can and are encouraged to write about whatever you think is relevant) I think that we should each focus on the different aspects that we know the most about. My suggestion is that I focus on commodities (specifically crude oil for now), Alex and Eugene on Equities and Nick on Forex. Happy Trading everyone!
-Gary
-Gary
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